Bitcoin: Death Throes or The Beginning of a New Climax 01-16-2015, 04:42 AM
#1
I hope you've at least heard of Bitcoin by now and moreover I hope you are reasonably well-versed in the mechanics of the Bitcoin system. If you are familiar with the former, you may also be following the long declining trend of Bitcoin from the ATH (All Time High) achieved last December. If not, please check out the price charts over at BitcoinWisdom.com before you continue reading.
Bullish investors and supporters of Bitcoin see the recent crash below the $200 mark as the last stages of a larger declining wave that will complete the fourth (depending on the analysis) wave of a large Elliott Wave structure continuing back to at least 2012. This was the opinion of CryptoCoinNews' former analyst Jim Fredrickson. Jim did, however argue that should price fall beneath the April 2013 high of $266 then he would have to re-evaluate his position as very rarely, if ever, should the bottom of the fourth wave fall below the high of first wave in a five wave pattern. Unfortunately since Jim has discontinued his analysis for CCN we may never know his new opinion/position. Perhaps the most pragmatic argument for bullish sentiment is that declines often end in long red candles and panic selling much like we had seen yesterday. If the bulls are right then we should expect to see the market continue sideways until it can break the resistance it has tested in the area of ~$237, subsequently we would expect a move toward $300 with strong resistance at the psychological barriers of $250 and $275.
Bearish sentiment is, of course, available in spades at the moment. The recent fall to ~$160 had been enough to force large mining operations to reconsider their business models and even force some into default. Due to the argument made above about the inconsistency with the fourth wave theory I am more inclined to believe that lower lows are still possible and indeed more plausible in the near future. The NASDAQ seems to agree, with their analysis valuing Bitcoin at $140 per coin which is just slightly higher than the price of a single coin prior to the November 2013 run that culminated in the ATH. I think a slide down to $140 is plausible at the moment and the current bounce back into the ~$215 range is a correction after the price plunge of the last few days.
What does everyone else think will happen with Bitcoin? Is it showing its last signs of life before it fizzles or will we see a new bull run in the future?
Bullish investors and supporters of Bitcoin see the recent crash below the $200 mark as the last stages of a larger declining wave that will complete the fourth (depending on the analysis) wave of a large Elliott Wave structure continuing back to at least 2012. This was the opinion of CryptoCoinNews' former analyst Jim Fredrickson. Jim did, however argue that should price fall beneath the April 2013 high of $266 then he would have to re-evaluate his position as very rarely, if ever, should the bottom of the fourth wave fall below the high of first wave in a five wave pattern. Unfortunately since Jim has discontinued his analysis for CCN we may never know his new opinion/position. Perhaps the most pragmatic argument for bullish sentiment is that declines often end in long red candles and panic selling much like we had seen yesterday. If the bulls are right then we should expect to see the market continue sideways until it can break the resistance it has tested in the area of ~$237, subsequently we would expect a move toward $300 with strong resistance at the psychological barriers of $250 and $275.
Bearish sentiment is, of course, available in spades at the moment. The recent fall to ~$160 had been enough to force large mining operations to reconsider their business models and even force some into default. Due to the argument made above about the inconsistency with the fourth wave theory I am more inclined to believe that lower lows are still possible and indeed more plausible in the near future. The NASDAQ seems to agree, with their analysis valuing Bitcoin at $140 per coin which is just slightly higher than the price of a single coin prior to the November 2013 run that culminated in the ATH. I think a slide down to $140 is plausible at the moment and the current bounce back into the ~$215 range is a correction after the price plunge of the last few days.
What does everyone else think will happen with Bitcoin? Is it showing its last signs of life before it fizzles or will we see a new bull run in the future?
![[+]](https://sinister.ly/images/modern/collapse_collapsed.png)