[Magnetron]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction...zweil#2019

I totally forgot about this. I read the book back in 2007 and couldn't wait until 2009 to see how many of the predictions came true for that decade. Unbelievably, another decade has passed since then.
Anyone else care to touch upon any of these? The opinion of youngins are especially welcome.

Here goes:

The computational capacity of a $4,000 computing device (in 1999 dollars) is approximately equal to the computational capability of the human brain (20 quadrillion calculations per second).

Nope. A rig with an Intel Core i9-7960X is around that price and is only rated at 1.4 TFLOPS/s.

The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race.

...no.

Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.).

Not remotely.

People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet.

Virtual retinal displays exist but they haven't gained traction. I'm not sure they're even sold as consumer products yet.

People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. Dealing with computers thus becomes more and more like dealing with a human being.

Getting there but not really.

Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person.

No.

Most people own more than one PC, though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all sorts of unexpected shapes and sizes.

This one is true but a little vague to be a quotable.

Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared.

In your dreams.

Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used.

Almost there.

Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate.

I'm gonna say no because I never heard of such thing.

Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use.

Out of my league. I'm guessing no.

Destructive scans of the brain and noninvasive brain scans have allowed scientists to understand the brain much better. The algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain to construct a much more complex organ are being transferred into computer neural nets.

Not really. Progress is pathetic. There's still no objective test for mental illness. fMRIs are grossly inaccurate and unreliable.

Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere.

I guess.

Nanotechnology is more capable and is in use for specialized applications, yet it has not yet made it into the mainstream. "Nanoengineered machines" begin to be used in manufacturing.

True.

Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents. The aforementioned computer eyeglasses and contact lenses are also used for this same purpose, and all download the information wirelessly.

iPhones! Good one, Kurzweil!

Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete.

Except they haven't.

Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. These assistants are often not physically present, and help students remotely.

Online learning is more common but professors have not been replaced.

Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often done remotely via computers.

Indeed.

All students have access to computers.

Yes, but an easy guess. Computers have become a household item in 1999.

Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge.

A bit of a stretch and vague.

Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for them through speech.

Nope.

Sighted people also use these glasses to amplify their own abilities.

No but it is possible via Google Maps on a VRD device. Too bad VRDs aren't commercialized yet.

Retinal and neural implants also exist, but are in limited use because they are less useful.

They're in limited use because they haven't been adopted yet, 2019 is still too early.

Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. Cochlear and other implants are also widely used.

The latter is true, the former not so much but it is possible.

People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb steps using computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic walkers.

I haven't heard of such.

Computers are also found inside of some humans in the form of cybernetic implants. These are most commonly used by disabled people to regain normal physical faculties (e.g. Retinal implants allow the blind to see and spinal implants coupled with mechanical legs allow the paralyzed to walk).

As I said, I haven't seen any of these.

Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are routinely used in conversations.

Not yet, they're still clunky.

Effective language technologies (natural language processing, speech recognition, speech synthesis) exist.

They certainly do, but they're not perfect.

Anyone can wirelessly access the internet with wearable devices such as computerized glasses, contacts, and watches.

iPhones again.

Traditional computers and communication devices such as desktop PCs, laptops, and cell phones still exist, but most of their functions can be performed by wearable gadgets. Examples include reading books, listening to music, watching movies, playing games, and teleconferencing.

Indeed.

Devices that deliver sensations to the skin surface of their users (e.g. tight body suits and gloves) are also sometimes used in virtual reality to complete the experience. "Virtual sex"—in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality, or in which a human can have sex with a "simulated" partner that only exists on a computer—becomes a reality.

Not yet.

Just as visual- and auditory virtual reality have come of age, haptic technology has fully matured and is completely convincing, yet requires the user to enter a V.R. booth. It is commonly used for computer sex and remote medical examinations. It is the preferred sexual medium since it is safe and enhances the experience.

It's on the horizon.

Worldwide economic growth has continued. There has not been a global economic collapse.

Actually, we've never recovered from the 2008 global economic collapse and a new one is on the horizon that threatens to be far worse.

The vast majority of business interactions occur between humans and simulated retailers, or between a human's virtual personal assistant and a simulated retailer.

Nope. Online shopping and now Amazon Go is here but it's not commonplace. Most shopping and retail is still traditional.

Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable.

Not really. There's only vacuum robots.

Computers do most of the vehicle driving—-humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. Furthermore, when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control whenever the human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents.

Autonomous vehicles are here but they're not reliable enough to replace humans yet. Maybe in 2029.

Most roads now have automated driving systems—networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate.

See above. Not ubiquitous yet.

Prototype personal flying vehicles using microflaps exist. They are also primarily computer-controlled.

Drones!

Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which hold some advantages over human partners. The depth of some computer personalities convinces some people that they should be accorded more rights.

No but we're getting there. People in Japan have been marrying holograms with virtual personalities.

Most decisions made by humans involve consultation with machine intelligence. For example, a doctor may seek the advice of a digital assistant. A lawyer might utilize a virtual researcher. Or a shopper may receive recommendations from a software program that has learned his or her shopping habits.

The third one is true thanks to online ads, the first two not so much.

While a growing number of humans believe that their computers and the simulated personalities they interact with are intelligent to the point of human-level consciousness, experts dismiss the possibility that any could pass the Turing Test.

Indeed. Kurzweil is lucky he added that last sentence for plausible deniability so no one can call him out on this one.

Human-robot relationships begin as simulated personalities become more convincing.

Ehh... I don't know about that.

Interaction with virtual personalities becomes a primary interface.

Nope.

Public places and workplaces are ubiquitously monitored to prevent violence and all actions are recorded permanently. Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes.

Very true, cameras are everywhere.

The basic needs of the underclass are met. (Not specified if this pertains only to the developed world or to all countries)

Hell no, economic inequality is widening and poverty is on the rise.

Virtual artists—creative computers capable of making their own art and music—emerge in all fields of the arts.

No, but it's possible to generate art that's fairly easy on the eyes.

Most flying weapons are bird-sized robots. Some are as small as insects.

Drones aren't that impressive yet but we'll see.

Average life expectancy is over 100.

World life expectancy in 2019 is 73 years. The highest is 86 in Japan.

Computerized watches, clothing, and jewelry can monitor the wearers health continuously. They can detect many types of diseases and offer recommendations for treatment.

Your heart rate and oxygen level maybe but I've not heard of anything more advanced than that.

And yeah... I'm not impressed at all. He made only 2 predictions (smartphones and drones) that were impressive. The rest were obvious for anyone living in 1999 and completely unoriginal.

[Drako]

I didn't read your whole post but according to Moore's law, that's how computers are gonna go for ever, unless there's some ground breaking new tech. I did hear that soon processors may start heading upwards. Since we can't feasibly get any smaller, we might just start going up.

[Magnetron]

I didn't read your whole post but according to Moore's law, that's how computers are gonna go for ever, unless there's some ground breaking new tech. I did hear that soon processors may start heading upwards. Since we can't feasibly get any smaller, we might just start going up.

Don't read my post, read the link with the predictions. My post is just commenting on each individual one. TL;DR Most are false.